Contributor Opinion by Temperance Blalock: Why I Love The Census

When you look at the “fine print” on your 2010 census form, regarding privacy, you may notice that it says that your census data will be kept private for 72 years. You may wonder what is the origin of that interval, and it’s mostly due to the expected lifespan for an American, combined with the expectation that the data can eventually be available for family genealogy purposes.

I did extensive genealogy research for about a decade, and by far the best resource was federal census records. Before the advent of the internet, genealogy was an esoteric, secretive endeavor, usually performed by a small cabal of researchers, most of whom worked on getting people the proper documentation for membership in societies like the Daughters of the American Revolution. A lot of the research materials for sale to the layman were little more than collections of surnames from the phone books of major cities, but at least that was something concrete for people who were looking, sometimes blindly, for a connection to their ancestors and distant relatives.

Then the web came into being, and suddenly people could make instantaneous connections that they could never have hoped to make from their own limited knowledge, and there was a great revolution in genealogy. It had its drawbacks, though, including the propagation of a lot of incorrect data, but that was overwhelmed by the great benefit of being able to share information. Family trees could be organized in software databases and shared on websites, and people could access census data from sources like Genealogy.com and Ancestry.com.

I was especially fortunate to live in the DC area, so I could go down to the National Archives (back when it was open in the evenings and on Saturdays) and get immediate access to all of the federal census microfilms, from 1790 up to 1920. I transcribed thousands of census records for a book I was planning to write about Civil War pensioners in Tennessee, and I learned to love census records with a passion. It was so fascinating to see the evolution of a family, every ten years, to watch children being born and married off, to watch assets like land being accumulated, to watch names and ages mysteriously change, and to bring those individuals to life in my mind and my database.

Because so many of my Blalock family were living in the hills of Tennessee from the early 19th century, I was especially impressed at how thoroughly the census collectors were able to track down almost everyone. In the course of collecting those thousands of individual records, it was very rare that I completely “lost” someone in a census year: granted, it might take a lot of sleuthing to eventually find them, but the success rate was very high. I try to imagine the journeys of those census takers, traveling through wilderness and rough weather, tracking down homes and families, often met with hostility or suspicion. It makes it seem almost paradoxical, to me, that in our wired-up world it could be equally hard to track down everyone. But, the modern world has its own limitations.

I was really excited when the 1930 census was released eight years ago, because that was the first time that one of my parents was alive. I found my infant father living with his parents in Oklahoma, and was astonished to read that his name was recorded as “Murray Blalock”. WHAT?? I had never heard of this before. My father’s legal name was Richard, but growing up he was called Culmer. Where could “Murray” have come from? I had no idea – Dad died in 1992, and so sadly I couldn’t ask him. Thus, I am eagerly awaiting the release of the 1940 census in a few years, so that I can find out what he was called as a boy. And this is only one of the fascinating mysteries I have encountered in my travels through the census.

Why don’t you take advantage of that access and do some research yourself? Learning about the census is exciting, believe it or not.

Temperance Blalock

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such pieces for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Denny Freezer: Bike Rockville

On March 11th I completed duplicating Councilmember Mark Pierzchala’s efforts in riding the length of every street in Rockville. When he announced this last year I took inspiration from his idea and thought it was a fabulous way to see the city. In a total of 17 rides totaling 295 miles I duplicated Mark’s challenge.

The Rockville Bicycle Advisory Committee (RBAC; see http://www.rockvillemd.gov/recreation/bicycling/rbac.htm) has issued a challenge to all to ride 150 miles in 2010 in celebration of Rockville’s Sesquicentennial or 150th Anniversary, which is being celebrated this year. The challenge states “To track your miles, you may register and log-in to: http://presidentschallenge.org/ and enter Group ID Number: 89582 (Rockville Bike 150); enter any number/name for the Group Member Number; and start logging in your bicycling activity. OR keep your own mileage spreadsheet to share with us later.”

Why not combine the two challenges and get to know Rockville by riding the length of every street in Rockville during 2010? When you complete the 150 mile challenge you’ll be roughly halfway there (depending on your starting point for each ride and how efficiently you can navigate all the individual streets and cul-de-sacs). And many thanks to Mark for having the idea!

Denny Freezer

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such pieces for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Carl Henn: Plant Fruit And Nut Trees

This winter’s heavy snow and high winds have damaged and destroyed a fair number of trees. That is a pity since trees give us shade, reducing the energy we use to stay cool in summer. They block the wind, reducing the energy we use to stay warm in winter. They protect our watershed by reducing the storm surge when it rains. They give us the oxygen we need in the air we breathe and provide beauty that we often take for granted.

We tend to forget that trees can also give us food. I got a mailing from the Arbor Day Foundation earlier this week that offered me ten trees, not one of which provides food for humans. To be fair, I could eat the crab apples if I were hungry enough.

I hope never to be hungry enough to eat crab apples on a routine basis. But our agricultural system is heavily dependent on oil. We use oil to plow, plant and harvest our food. We use fossil fuels to generate nitrogen fertilizer, to dry crops for storage, to grind the grain, bring the food to market and cook it. Each calorie of food we eat has around 10 calories of fossil fuel embedded in its production.

Many energy experts believe we are near the peak of global oil production. America’s production peaked 40 years ago and has since fallen by half. World oil discoveries peaked over 40 years ago and we’ve been burning more than we discover since 1980. And we have more mouths to feed each year. We added over 70 million people worldwide last year, about the population of the entire United States in 1900.

Put rising population together with declining oil production and we will soon find ourselves in a different circumstance than we currently enjoy. I believe that we could manage the transition to a sustainable world without collapse or starvation if people of all nations acted promptly with intelligence and compassion. I haven’t seen that happening yet.

But I don’t envision huddling in the dark eating crab apples for my future. I’d rather eat apples and pecans. Accordingly, I have planted a few apple and hardy pecan trees. The storm-killed trees offer us an opportunity. Plant fruit and nut trees in their stead.

You may not see times coming that are hard enough to require you to grow your own food. I would note that Manna Food Center has faced unprecedented demand this year. Further, it has been normal through most of human history to grow your own food. And remember it takes years for a tree to get to the point where it provides fruits or nuts. We must anticipate the need.

The City of Rockville plants around 700 trees each year. These should also be fruit or nut trees.

Now is the time to find your tree catalogs or look online and order them, so you can plant them in the spring. I know next to nothing about fruit and nut trees, so I won’t offer any advice other than to be sure to plant them far enough away from your house that they fit when full grown, be careful that some varieties need another tree of a different cultivar nearby to pollinate, and note that you can train hazelnuts to serve as hedges.

Carl Henn

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Growing Old In Rockville [Updated]

Rockville was incorporated on March 10, 1860. The city will celebrate its 150th birthday with appropriate pride. The residents have been getting older too. In the 1950’s the population of Rockville was about 5000 people. The development of affordable housing attracted young families from Washington D.C. and Rockville grew at a rate of about 2000 people a year. This baby boom generation that led to the rapid growth of the city is now reaching retirement age. The graph below shows the expected increase in population of Rockville residents age 65 and over. This graph is based on a Task Force Report prepared by Senior Services Long Range Plan Task Force in 2006. The task force called attention to the “coming Tsunami” with numerous suggestions for city action in anticipation.

Graph mistakenly omited from original post.

These seniors are retiring in a very bad time economically. Most have seen their savings greatly reduced because of the stock market crash and the crash in housing values.. Over half of the retirees in the city depend on Social Security, 1/3 are “highly dependent” on Social Security. The average Social Security is about $1000/ month. There are a few affluent seniors who can afford the luxurious retirement community recently built in King Farm but the vast majority cannot. The city desperately needs affordable senior housing. It is thus especially tragic that the proposed 68 86 unit facility, Victory Court, that was to supply affordable senior housing has withdrawn its request for support from the city that would have enabled it to obtain tax credit funding from the state. With tax credit funding it would have been possible to set a rent of $1000 making the units affordable by the 1/3 of city seniors “highly dependent” on Social Security. Further development of Victory Court depends on finding alternative financing and completing site review by the Planning Commission.

The growing number of seniors in the city should have a political effect. The graph above shows a projection of the senior fraction of the total vote. This projection is based of past patterns of behavior and represents a best guess. It shows that in the next Rockville election in 2011 seniors will contribute between 35 and 40 % of the total vote. By 2020 seniors will contribute the majority of the vote. It is probable when seniors command a majority of the vote that their needs will receive greater support than they do now.

Roald Schrack

[UPDATED 2/9/10: The original post did not include the "Projected Senior Population in Rockville" Graph provided by R. Schrack, which has been added above.]

[UPDATED 2/9/10: The digits in the number of units were transposed. The figure has been corrected.]

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Voter Participation In Rockville For The Past 22 Elections

The voter participation figures are usually given in terms of votes per number on registration list. The recent surge in Democratic registrations before the 2008 presidential elections increased the registration list so that even though there are more voters in the 2009 Rockville election than in the 2007 election, the relative participation numbers went from 20% in 2007 , down to 17% in 2009. It is probable that the county registration list may actually shrink from 2008 to 2010. The county Board of Elections website shows a net loss for November and a net gain for December in the number of registered voters.

In 1987 the city switched from maintaining its’ own registration list to using the somewhat larger County registration list. Before 1987 the city had participation rates of 60% and 70%. Going to the larger County registration list reduced participation rates to about 20%.

Comparison of participation rates in Rockville elections can be very confusing and misleading The following graph shows the voting history in Rockville from 1968 to 2009, with participation based on registration lists in the upper curve. The lower curve shows participation based on city population. Note that this curve is relatively flat, staying about 10% from 1968 to 2009. The major excursions are in 1985 when Van Grack spent more than $10. A vote and in 1993 when Coyle had no opposition.

The final curve shows the ratio of registration to total population. Ideally, the number of Rockville residents over 18 should be used but that data is not readily available.

The purpose of this study is to show that participation calculations based on registration lists can be greatly misleading. The fraction of the population that votes in City elections is not as high as might be desired but it is a relatively constant fraction of the population and has remained relatively constant for the past 22 elections.

Roald Schrack

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: 2009 Election Finances Update

In the original report on November 18 the final candidate financial report had not been made. I stated that if the final report made any major changes that I would issue an update. The final report on December 3rd showed increases up to 30% in expenditures of some candidates. Most candidates had changes much smaller. The final line of the table comparing the last 4 elections needs modification The expenditures in 2009 are now much closer to the peak year of 2005.

The financial reports of the candidates can now be found on the city website.

A comparison of expenditures in 2009 to previous elections is presented in the table below.
The very low numbers shown for $/Vote occurred in years that the Mayor and Council ran as a slate, greatly reducing expenses for individual candidates. Since there was no opposition to Coyle and his slate, there was no significant expenditure of money.

The graph labeled Votes per Donor shows in graphic form the relative votes obtained per donor. Donors are a major outreach method for a candidate. Marcuccio was remarkably effective in getting 190 donors but not as effective as other candidates in turning these assets into votes. It is possible that some slating took place to augment her vote total.

The final graph shows the cost of a vote for the candidates. The highly competitive race between Marcuccio and Hoffmann made them pay more for a vote than would be the case for a less competitive race. In the table showing the cost per vote in other elections it can be seen that in weak or non- competitive races the cost per vote drops markedly. For the council races where the candidates were closely matched in relative ability, it is clear that there is a strong correlation between campaign expenditure and votes obtained. Consider the cases of Henn and Pierzchala. Pierzchala spent nearly twice as much as Henn and beat him by only 62 votes. It is probably true that the $6000 Pierzchala invested in his race was necessary for him to win.

The new modified tables that include the December data are shown for contributions and expenditures. The tables include an additional column showing the amounts added in the December 3rd reports.

The amounts added in the last report are quite large in some cases, but there is no indication that an attempt was made to conceal donations. Such a move might have negative consequences for it would be held against the candidate if they ran again and in addition the candidate would lose the appearance of strength before the election that could help them get votes. It is interesting to note that the largest increase in expenditures in the December report was by Marcuccio, who won.

New Cash Cont. – from the December 3 financial report
Total Cash Cont.- Total cash contribution to candidate including December 3 contributions.
# Donors – Total contributions list. There may be duplications
# N-R Donors – number of contributors with non-Rockville addresses
% N-R Donors – % of Donors with non-Rockville addresses
In-Kind Cont. – Value of listed in-kind contributions.
Total Cont. – sum of cash and in-kind contributions
Unpaid Loans – Value of loan, usually made by a candidate to their campaign. None of these has been repaid.

New Expenditures – from the December 3 financial report
Total Expenditures – All expenditures including December 3 expenditures
Balance – Amount left in campaign account. Loans have not been repaid.
Ave. Cont. – Average contribution, Cash Contributions divided by number of donors.
Votes – Votes received by candidate
$/vote – Expenditures divided by number of votes.
Votes/donor – Votes divided by number of donors.

Roald Schrack

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Carl Henn: Solar Co-op Options

Let’s say you want to put solar panels on your roof. It’s a big expense. There are many options to choose from, many companies offering different products, lots of paperwork to get the state, local and federal support that is available. It’s a daunting prospect. I’m sure some people who might otherwise move forward with solar panels haven’t due to the complexity of the process, while others fear they’ll pay too much or buy a system that doesn’t perform as anticipated.

Solar Co-ops can help overcome these barriers. Depending on how it is organized, they may also reduce the cost by buying in bulk instead of as a single system at one household.

There is a fine example of what a solar co-op can do in the nearby DC neighborhood of Mount Pleasant. A few neighbors there wanted to install solar panels and thought if they are going to go to all the trouble of figuring the whole thing out, they would bring some other neighbors along and get a volume discount. They were driven to action by deep concern about global warming and other environmental problems. They have succeeded in getting 50 systems installed so far. See http://www.mtpleasantsolarcoop.org/

Another twist on this idea comes from the United Power Co-op in Brighton, Colorado. In this case, the power co-op is the local utility. Noting that many of their customers wanted solar power but face the same barriers noted above or don’t own their roof or have too much shade for solar to work at their home, they created a “solar farm” leasing arrangement. See http://www.unitedpower.com/solpartners.aspx  They set up solar panels on their own land, getting the capital from their customers. They provide a 25 year lease on a 210 watt photovoltaic panel for $1,050. They provide a 3% return on investment, based on current energy prices. Their promotional material claims a 17 year payback, though my own calculation shows that unless electricity prices increase, it won’t pay for itself before the lease expires. But carrying an income source into the future isn’t risk free. The stock market disappointed my expectation for a return on investment and indeed has swallowed much of the principal I invested. This investment has the potential to hold its own against inflation since rising energy costs are a primary source of inflation.

Another co-op approach worth noting is the effort by the Rockville Chamber of Commerce. They will negotiate purchase of wind generated electricity on behalf of their members. See http://www.gazette.net/stories/12022009/rocknew220922_32535.shtml This will be done through Clean Currents, which is also available to individuals who aren’t in the Chamber of Commerce. Clean Currents will sell you electricity that has been generated via wind turbines as described at http://www.cleancurrents.com/index.php/C-Green-Overview Currently, their price is lower than the standard Pepco price.

So what should we be doing differently in Rockville to increase renewable energy generation? First – step back and look at the bigger picture. There is a good chance you can save more energy by putting insulation in your attic then by putting solar panels on your roof, and can do so for less money. You should get an energy audit. Chevy Chase recently set up a rebate program for their residents to pay for energy audits and a portion of the upgrades that such audits recommend. See http://www.townofchevychase.org/n/166

The co-op approach used by Mount Pleasant is very powerful. But it requires a huge effort by a few individuals. I’ve seen several websites from other people trying to do the same thing. Most of them haven’t had a single installation yet. My hat is off to the Mt. Pleasant folks. Convincing people to part with thousands of their dollars, and setting up a structure for the contracts to work through is quite an accomplishment.

I would recommend a simpler approach – negotiating a “Rockville Deal” for solar panels that any resident can use, without trying to put the contract through the City or a community group, without guaranteeing a certain number of installations. While this would likely mean the cost per unit would be a bit higher, it is a more achievable approach. It would still be helpful. The City could set up a competitive process, eliminating those companies that have had performance issues, negotiating the technical specifications and prices of the unit and setting forth how to capture the state, local and federal subsidies. It would likely still be cheaper than most people would get on their own. The City could present the Rockville Deal approach in the proper perspective – energy audit first, invest in the most cost effective upgrades, how much sunlight/shade do you have?, is your roof good for another 15 years (i.e. Don’t put new panels on an old roof). If you get guidance from a salesman, you might not get unbiased advice.

The City could also mirror the approach taken by the Brighton co-op. The City’s owns a number of buildings that have unshaded roofs where solar panels could be installed. The City doesn’t have the money to do this, and indeed if they did they would probably be better served to put that money into more efficient street lights or better insulation at Glenview Mansion. But they could lease panels in such a manner that citizens would pay for the panels and the city would then pay the citizen for the electricity that the panels generate.

Investing in solar panels as an individual requires an appropriate site, knowledge of the marketplace and technology, knowledge of government subsidy programs, research into contract terms and such. Making this investment through the City allows for economies of scale, and makes it so each individual doesn’t have to do all the legwork alone. It makes the process more simple and accessible. This program would provide an investment alternative to the stock market which may fail widely in an era of declining oil production. A Rockville Solar Farm may well be one of the better investments available.

Carl Henn

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by R.A. Schrack: The 2009 Rockville Election Finances

UPDATE SINCE ORGINAL POSTING: An updated Contributions Table has been included below.

There were 12 candidates that filed financial reports during the 2009 election cycle. This report is based on the first 2 reports that were submitted to the city before the election. There is one more report due, but it would be very unusual for this last report to alter the conclusions of this report.

The table below compares the results of the last four elections.

The low participation rate of .17 probably is due to the large number of new voters registered for the 2008 presidential campaign. The values for individual candidates are given on the next page. Mailings usually went out to about 8000 voters who had been active in previous elections. Candidates made different levels of effort in soliciting funds. One candidate sent out stamped-self addressed- envelopes that seemed to be very effective in getting a large number of donors. Many candidates had large fractions of their donors live outside of Rockville. This can result from support from co-workers and/or relatives, and no negative intent is implied.

The data in this report can be found on the city website: /www.rockvillemd.gov/election09/ To see a financial report, click on the candidate. Then on the candidate page click on the report date desired.

The graph above shows the relationship of votes obtained to number of donors. The dashed line shows the average of 48 votes for every donor. Candidates to the left of the line did better than average. Below it is a graph of votes per dollar spent. Again the dashed line shows the average of 44 cents spent for every vote received. Note that John Britton only had to spend 11 cents for each vote If he were a truly independent first-time candidate like the candidates beneath him on the graph he probably would not have done this well. He probably profited by a combination of incumbency, slating and some bullet balloting.

Marcuccio spent the greatest amount, $16,286 for a cost of $4.92 per vote. It is interesting to note that in 2007 Marcuccio had 88 donors. Only 44 of those donors also contributed in 2009. In addition she got 12 new donors from Anne Robbins 2007 donor list and 8 new donors from Bridget Newton’s list. Most donor lists were composed of names unique to the candidate. For example, Marcuccio had over a hundred new unique donors in 2009. Of the 608 donors listed for all candidates, only about a dozen appeared on several donor lists.

Contributions

Originally Posted Table:

Cash Cont.- Total cash contribution to candidate
# Donors – Total contributions list. There may be duplications
# N-R Donors – number of contributors with non-Rockville addresses
% N-R Donors – % of Donors with non-Rockville addresses
In-Kind Cont. – Value of listed in-kind contributions.
Total Cont. – sum of cash and in-kind contributions
Loans – Value of loan, usually made by a candidate to their campaign. None of these has been repaid.

Updated Table: Drew Powell used GIS to analyze the addresses of donors resulting in the following:

Expenditures

Expenditures – total expenditures
Balance – Amount left in campaign account. Loans have not been repaid.
Ave. Cont. – Average contribution, Cash Contributions divided by number of donors.
$/vote – Expenditures divided by number of votes.
Votes/donor – Votes divided by number of donors.

This report was based on the financial reports submitted October 1, 2009 and October 29,2009.
There is a report due on December 3, if it makes any major changes a supplemental report will be made.

Roald Schrack

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion By Susan Hoffmann: Thank You For The Honor Of Serving

Dear Residents of Rockville:

I wish to express my gratitude to each and every one of you for giving me the high honor to serve you as Mayor and previously as a Councilmember. I wish I could be in direct touch with you, but this open letter to all will have to suffice.

As I said in my 2009 campaign kickoff speech . . . “my love affair with Rockville continues.” And that is and will always be the case. To serve a City . . . a community that one loves, is a great honor indeed, but also an enormous privilege that befalls only the most fortunate among us. I do, however, recommend it highly. Public service is extremely rewarding and provides an opportunity to give back that is without equal.

My family and I have been blessed with much love and support from our fellow residents. I have received an avalanche of good wishes and good thoughts. Your kindness is most appreciated.

Local grassroots politics is the best, most gratifying politics and Rockville does it as well as anywhere. Going door-to-door to learn what’s on the minds of our neighbors cannot be duplicated by any other activity. Rain or shine, voters are grateful that we are interested in seeking out their problems and opinions. I highly recommend it…whether as a candidate or an advocate for a candidate.

My congratulations to Mayor Marcuccio and the newly-elected City Council. May wisdom and good judgment continue to serve you well. Kudos to everyone who was a candidate this year. I believe that the caliber of candidates in the 2009 campaign has raised the bar for all future elections and I salute you. I shall continue to be a proud resident of Rockville and look forward to seeing you out and about throughout the City.

Best,
Susan Hoffmann

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion By John Britton: Post-Election Comments

I have thoroughly enjoyed reading everyone’s contributions, presented in numerous opinion articles and comments on this blog and in other sources, to the analyses of the election results and speculation on voting influences and patterns in our recent election.  I think we are fortunate to have seasoned issues- and election-watchers such as Roald Shrack to offer perspectives and analyses within the context of elections and voting trends over a period of time.  I appreciate Roald’s excellent work in compiling election data and information and presenting his compilation and analysis to the community at large.  We will soon inaugurate the members of our new mayor and council (including yours truly) who will immediately set to rolling up the sleeves for a new term of work (well, if you view tapes of the M&C meetings, you rarely see rolled-up sleeves, but you know what I mean!).  Post-election analyses will quickly fade in favor of old and new issues that will demand the M&C’s and the community’s attention.  So I offer a few comments here to cap my own review of the election results.

It has been fun to review Roald’s analysis and the raw election data to find some quirky items or an event/trend that may warrant further analysis.  For example, with respect to quirky, the stats show that in both 2007 and 2009, I led the pack in the number of absentee ballots received.  Interesting.  Now what does that say about me that voters may cast their votes for me only when comfortably out of town?!  (Memo to self:  develop new campaign strategy to encourage more voters to vacation out of town the first week of November.)

A different example and an item of peculiar interest is the chart shown in Roald’s report titled “Comparison of Council Missing Ballot Fraction.”  This illustrates, I believe, the so-called “bullet voting” syndrome, allegations of which have surfaced, as Roald suggests, in past elections.  In concert with such allegations, the chart reflects in both 2007 and 2009 certain levels of presumed “bullet voting” in perennially suspect districts, relative constants in the two elections.  One statistic that leaps from the page, however, is the disconnect between the level of missing ballots in District 2 for 2007 and that in 2009.  District 2 has the most significant increase of all the districts in missing ballots (“bullet voting”?) from the last election to our recent election.  As Roald suggests, the missing ballot curve does not so much resemble the vote pattern for any one candidate but may represent a certain strategy in specific districts.  And I don’t know if the aberrant year is 2007 or 2009.  But what could have caused such a rise in missing ballots in one election cycle in District 2, a district that prides itself on civic knowledge, awareness and involvement?  In philosophical terms, “bullet voting” begs certain questions whether in District 2 or elsewhere.  Is such voting practice, usually encouraged only discretely, illegal?  Well, of course not.  Is it unethical?  I suspect there are varying answer to this based on one’s emotional attachment to a certain candidate or contentious issue.  Is it disruptive?  Herein lies the dilemma for the civics education and involvement purists.  It certainly does not affect the mayor’s race since you only have one vote anyway.  On a personal level, it’s obvious that it was not a negative factor as my vote counts increased since the last election in most districts and remained fairly constant in District 2.  Nay, I fear the impact may be on other candidates whose substantive positions and proposals may have been given short thrift in deference to the one note vote instruction.  In addition, on a systemic level, others may fear some kind of insidious impact as we push the edges of the envelope further to encourage, and for all practical purposes make it de rigueur, ever more strategic tricks and maneuverings to the detriment of a full public dialogue on the issues.

Following on this and relevant to the numerous comments of the past week, I read with interest everyone’s take on the influential factors for the successful candidates.  These ranged from home district advantage to civic association activism to incumbency to spin-off impact in association with another candidate.  I suspect a look at successful candidates will reveal a combination of such factors.  What was striking to me was the absence in the dialogue and in the public expressed analysis of such factors as a candidate’s level of knowledge of facts and issues, analytical skills, ability to respond to tough questions extemporaneously, yada, yada, yada.  Maybe these attributes were all assumed in the identification of the other factors.  Of course, they should be.  Maybe we won’t know this to be true until that day when we have a successful candidate who hails from District 6 (small voting population; weak civic association), is new to elected politics (non-incumbent) and is not on a slate, formal or otherwise, but is really, really smart.  Yeah, you’re right, probably never happen.  Too bad, that recurrent Adlai Stevenson syndrome that seems to permeate American and, alas, Rockville politics.

John Britton
City Councilmember

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