Editorial Opinion by Cindy Cotte Griffiths: Board of Appeals Brought To Court

Originally, back in March 2010, the Rockville City Council voted to instruct the City Attorney not to represent the Board of Appeals when they were petitioned by 15 members of the community for a court review concerning their decision to approve a Special Exemption for Victory Court, an 86-unit affordable senior housing development planned for property owned by Montgomery County on Fleet Street. (For the record: Phyllis Marcuccio, Bridget Newton and Piotr Gajewski voted against representing the volunteer Board while John Britton and Mark Pierzchala voted to allow the salaried City Attorney to represent the Board.)

Obviously as the Chair of one of our City’s Commissions, I was tremendously concerned about how these volunteers were treated. Roy Deitchman, a member of the Board of Appeals for seven years resigned over the matter. At the time, I could only put myself in the Board’s shoes and imagine being left alone to defend my Commission against this group in court.

In April when Montgomery County assigned an attorney to respond to the Petition for Judicial Review, the Mayor and Council reversed their decision in a 4-1 vote with Bridget Newton continuing to oppose the representation. The minutes from the April 12, 2010 meeting state “Councilmember Newton said she did feel the Board’s decision was flawed and would vote to not go forward with the City’s response.”

The members of the Board of Appeals dedicate many hours of service without compensation. I strongly believe the City they serve should represent them.  One of the City Attorney’s duties is to “Defend challenges to decisions/actions of the Mayor and Council, Boards and Commissions, and staff.” The majority of our elected officials eventually did the right thing.

Yesterday I went to Judge Greenberg’s Circuit Courtroom to see what would happen with this Petition brought by Alice Lui and 14 others. Mayor Phyllis Marcuccio and Councilmember Bridget Newton were in attendance along with Alice Liu and Noreen Bryan.

The City Attorney was present to represent the City of Rockville. Montgomery County, the owner of the property, and Victory Housing, the developer, both had attorneys present. The Board of Appeals was represented by Alan Sternstein a member of the Board of Appeals, who pointed out that he was not being compensated.

Judge Greenberg held the hearing to a one-hour time limit and explained he had read all the documents submitted. Since the attorney representing Montgomery County decided not to speak, this left 15 minutes for each of the other attorneys. Obviously what was heard in the courtroom was not the full argument on either side. I’m sure someone with a legal background could find fault with my descriptions since the words spoken quickly in a limited time period might not have been as accurate as all the many stacks of evidence in this matter. Regardless, I am going to attempt to portray what occurred in the courtroom because this issue is important to our City.

The attorney, Mr. Chen, representing the petitioners in this matter attempted to list issues, reusing numbers in his description. He stated that the deciding agency did not render defining reasons and there was an absence of evidence. He was also concerned about how the amended decision evolved, which he believed was eligible for review. He also stated that the Board of Appeals was required by State Code 66B to go over and above anything in our City’s Zoning Ordinance to make sure that a special exemption would not adversely affect the health of the neighborhood. A development cannot change the character of a neighborhood. He also stated that the “neighborhood” was not properly defined. Notices were sent to everyone in a ¼ mile radius of the property but the Board of Appeals never legally defined the area in their decision. There is also concern about what is planned in the 59-foot buffer area especially the parking. When he mentioned that the Comprehensive Plan for the City of Rockville stated affordable housing must be scattered-site, the Judge asked about whether this was a recommendation rather than a requirement. He responded that the State Statute 66B requires it to be “complied with” so scattered means scattered. Using the ¼ mile radius area, it is overly impacted by affordable housing. The Board of Appeals did not address this situation. Another issue mentioned was that adequate accessibility to public transportation, medical services, shopping and recreational/community services had to be determined since the proposed housing would serve people with disabilities. The petitioners believe there was no attempt to do so by Victory Housing other than to say all of these existed “in Rockville”.

Personally, I do not discriminate on the basis of income. Having neighbors (who might not make as much money as the people living in the townhouses of Courthouse Square or the single-family houses on South Washington and Argyle Street) living in apartments does not lower housing values or adversely affect our neighborhood. To believe otherwise is discrimination. I say this with my house being less than a block from the Victory Court site and a stone’s throw from those bringing this petition. Also, the Victory Court location is across the street from City Hall, a few blocks from Town Square and the Metro, with bus stops and sidewalks surrounding it. I love my neighborhood because it is so close to everything, an excellent location for all of the amenities mentioned.

Now, let me review the responses from the other attorneys.

The City’s Attorney indicated that she had fully responded in writing. Ms. Daniel used her time to explain that the concerns over the “flat roof” were unjustified. Throughout the body of the Board’s original decision, a flat roof was mentioned three times, which she detailed. Clearly the intention was to approve a flat roof. About the concern that the amendment signed by all three Board members after the January hearing should have required an additional meeting, she stated the document evidenced what occurred in the January hearing and did not require another hearing since it simply corrected the decision. There is nothing in the law requiring a new hearing. Even if the Court found an error, there would still not need to be a hearing. She stated that the only reason everyone was in Court was because these neighbors were not happy with the decision. As to the area used for this case, other legal cases have clarified that it need not be “strictly defined in any way”. She explained that no one was confused as to the area used in this case. The petitioners never raised the issue and said, “Hey, I don’t know what neighborhood you are talking about.” The City and neighborhood all had the same area in mind when the development was discussed.

When representing the Board of Appeals, Mr. Sternstein stated that to contend that there was some other design other than a flat roof was inconsistent since it was always very clear it was a flat roof. When the 39-foot roof was specified to comply with City’s Zoning, it actually gave the developer even less leeway because it could be higher. He pointed out that Ms. Liu testified that the 39-foot height was moving the project in the right direction and Ms. Bryan stated it went a long way to fit into the neighborhood. He added that their attorney stated the Board was in fact responsive. No harm to the petitioners’ properties was ever defined. He also wanted comment about the photos provided by the petitioners showing a balloon raised to the height of the building. A citizen demonstrated to him exactly how the photo had been cropped and manipulated. He had actually been present when the balloon was raised so he urged the Court to be careful.

The attorney for Victory Housing, Mr. Kline, addressed the issue that “the case before you is the absence of evidence”. He believed the evidence in this appeal was the most he had ever seen. Everybody had a chance to put into the record everything they had to say. These hearings occurred on four Saturdays and lasted all day, one even from 9:30 AM until 5:30 PM. There is a substantial body of evidence. It’s all in the record and the questions were all asked. With so much evidence, it puts it in the “fairly debatable category” but a decision had to be made by the Board. He defended the use of a 59-foot buffer which is landscaped. The City Staff determined it was adequate. With evidence on both sides, the presumption goes to the Board of Appeals. When you get into the issues, the petitioners have “no basis for them.” In Maryland a Board can correct a decision without a public hearing and there was no change from what was stated in the public hearing.

The attorney for the petitioners spoke again in response, stating that if facts were discussed after the January hearing and before the Board issued their corrected decision, then there should have been another hearing. Even if his petitioners benefitted from the clarification that the roof was to be 39-feet high, they had a right to know what was going on. He said they need to see what is in the Board’s emails to make sure the decision was exclusive to the Board of Appeals and that there were no emails sent by City Staff or the developer.

Judge Greenberg ended by stating “Thank you very much for this well-briefed case.” Then he said it wouldn’t be very long until he gave his written opinion.

This is my first time attending a court case and attempting to describe it to our readers. Obviously, this housing project for seniors is in my neighborhood and I have a special interest because I volunteer on one of our City’s Commissions. I strongly believe we all volunteer to make our City a better place. I hope this incident does not deter others from coming forward to serve. 

Contributor Opinion by Temperance Blalock: Why I Love The Census

>When you look at the “fine print” on your 2010 census form, regarding privacy, you may notice that it says that your census data will be kept private for 72 years. You may wonder what is the origin of that interval, and it’s mostly due to the expected lifespan for an American, combined with the expectation that the data can eventually be available for family genealogy purposes.

I did extensive genealogy research for about a decade, and by far the best resource was federal census records. Before the advent of the internet, genealogy was an esoteric, secretive endeavor, usually performed by a small cabal of researchers, most of whom worked on getting people the proper documentation for membership in societies like the Daughters of the American Revolution. A lot of the research materials for sale to the layman were little more than collections of surnames from the phone books of major cities, but at least that was something concrete for people who were looking, sometimes blindly, for a connection to their ancestors and distant relatives.

Then the web came into being, and suddenly people could make instantaneous connections that they could never have hoped to make from their own limited knowledge, and there was a great revolution in genealogy. It had its drawbacks, though, including the propagation of a lot of incorrect data, but that was overwhelmed by the great benefit of being able to share information. Family trees could be organized in software databases and shared on websites, and people could access census data from sources like Genealogy.com and Ancestry.com.

I was especially fortunate to live in the DC area, so I could go down to the National Archives (back when it was open in the evenings and on Saturdays) and get immediate access to all of the federal census microfilms, from 1790 up to 1920. I transcribed thousands of census records for a book I was planning to write about Civil War pensioners in Tennessee, and I learned to love census records with a passion. It was so fascinating to see the evolution of a family, every ten years, to watch children being born and married off, to watch assets like land being accumulated, to watch names and ages mysteriously change, and to bring those individuals to life in my mind and my database.

Because so many of my Blalock family were living in the hills of Tennessee from the early 19th century, I was especially impressed at how thoroughly the census collectors were able to track down almost everyone. In the course of collecting those thousands of individual records, it was very rare that I completely “lost” someone in a census year: granted, it might take a lot of sleuthing to eventually find them, but the success rate was very high. I try to imagine the journeys of those census takers, traveling through wilderness and rough weather, tracking down homes and families, often met with hostility or suspicion. It makes it seem almost paradoxical, to me, that in our wired-up world it could be equally hard to track down everyone. But, the modern world has its own limitations.

I was really excited when the 1930 census was released eight years ago, because that was the first time that one of my parents was alive. I found my infant father living with his parents in Oklahoma, and was astonished to read that his name was recorded as “Murray Blalock”. WHAT?? I had never heard of this before. My father’s legal name was Richard, but growing up he was called Culmer. Where could “Murray” have come from? I had no idea – Dad died in 1992, and so sadly I couldn’t ask him. Thus, I am eagerly awaiting the release of the 1940 census in a few years, so that I can find out what he was called as a boy. And this is only one of the fascinating mysteries I have encountered in my travels through the census.

Why don’t you take advantage of that access and do some research yourself? Learning about the census is exciting, believe it or not.

Temperance Blalock

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such pieces for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Carl Henn: Plant Fruit And Nut Trees

>This winter’s heavy snow and high winds have damaged and destroyed a fair number of trees. That is a pity since trees give us shade, reducing the energy we use to stay cool in summer. They block the wind, reducing the energy we use to stay warm in winter. They protect our watershed by reducing the storm surge when it rains. They give us the oxygen we need in the air we breathe and provide beauty that we often take for granted.

We tend to forget that trees can also give us food. I got a mailing from the Arbor Day Foundation earlier this week that offered me ten trees, not one of which provides food for humans. To be fair, I could eat the crab apples if I were hungry enough.

I hope never to be hungry enough to eat crab apples on a routine basis. But our agricultural system is heavily dependent on oil. We use oil to plow, plant and harvest our food. We use fossil fuels to generate nitrogen fertilizer, to dry crops for storage, to grind the grain, bring the food to market and cook it. Each calorie of food we eat has around 10 calories of fossil fuel embedded in its production.

Many energy experts believe we are near the peak of global oil production. America’s production peaked 40 years ago and has since fallen by half. World oil discoveries peaked over 40 years ago and we’ve been burning more than we discover since 1980. And we have more mouths to feed each year. We added over 70 million people worldwide last year, about the population of the entire United States in 1900.

Put rising population together with declining oil production and we will soon find ourselves in a different circumstance than we currently enjoy. I believe that we could manage the transition to a sustainable world without collapse or starvation if people of all nations acted promptly with intelligence and compassion. I haven’t seen that happening yet.

But I don’t envision huddling in the dark eating crab apples for my future. I’d rather eat apples and pecans. Accordingly, I have planted a few apple and hardy pecan trees. The storm-killed trees offer us an opportunity. Plant fruit and nut trees in their stead.

You may not see times coming that are hard enough to require you to grow your own food. I would note that Manna Food Center has faced unprecedented demand this year. Further, it has been normal through most of human history to grow your own food. And remember it takes years for a tree to get to the point where it provides fruits or nuts. We must anticipate the need.

The City of Rockville plants around 700 trees each year. These should also be fruit or nut trees.

Now is the time to find your tree catalogs or look online and order them, so you can plant them in the spring. I know next to nothing about fruit and nut trees, so I won’t offer any advice other than to be sure to plant them far enough away from your house that they fit when full grown, be careful that some varieties need another tree of a different cultivar nearby to pollinate, and note that you can train hazelnuts to serve as hedges.

Carl Henn

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Growing Old In Rockville [Updated]

>Rockville was incorporated on March 10, 1860. The city will celebrate its 150th birthday with appropriate pride. The residents have been getting older too. In the 1950′s the population of Rockville was about 5000 people. The development of affordable housing attracted young families from Washington D.C. and Rockville grew at a rate of about 2000 people a year. This baby boom generation that led to the rapid growth of the city is now reaching retirement age. The graph below shows the expected increase in population of Rockville residents age 65 and over. This graph is based on a Task Force Report prepared by Senior Services Long Range Plan Task Force in 2006. The task force called attention to the “coming Tsunami” with numerous suggestions for city action in anticipation.

Graph mistakenly omited from original post.

These seniors are retiring in a very bad time economically. Most have seen their savings greatly reduced because of the stock market crash and the crash in housing values.. Over half of the retirees in the city depend on Social Security, 1/3 are “highly dependent” on Social Security. The average Social Security is about $1000/ month. There are a few affluent seniors who can afford the luxurious retirement community recently built in King Farm but the vast majority cannot. The city desperately needs affordable senior housing. It is thus especially tragic that the proposed 68 86 unit facility, Victory Court, that was to supply affordable senior housing has withdrawn its request for support from the city that would have enabled it to obtain tax credit funding from the state. With tax credit funding it would have been possible to set a rent of $1000 making the units affordable by the 1/3 of city seniors “highly dependent” on Social Security. Further development of Victory Court depends on finding alternative financing and completing site review by the Planning Commission.

The growing number of seniors in the city should have a political effect. The graph above shows a projection of the senior fraction of the total vote. This projection is based of past patterns of behavior and represents a best guess. It shows that in the next Rockville election in 2011 seniors will contribute between 35 and 40 % of the total vote. By 2020 seniors will contribute the majority of the vote. It is probable when seniors command a majority of the vote that their needs will receive greater support than they do now.

Roald Schrack

[UPDATED 2/9/10: The original post did not include the "Projected Senior Population in Rockville" Graph provided by R. Schrack, which has been added above.]

[UPDATED 2/9/10: The digits in the number of units were transposed. The figure has been corrected.]

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Editorial Opinion by Cindy Cotte Griffiths: Affordable Housing As A Priority

During the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, the >Mayor and Council will attend their biannual retreat and set their priorities for the next two years.

As many of you know, I chair the Human Services Advisory Commission and we have sent the following letter to the Mayor and Council:

We, the Human Service Advisory Commission (HSAC), are writing to you in support of affordable housing in our community. Whenever HSAC studies needs assessments, the lack of affordable housing in the City is evident. In addition, the recent economic slowdown and loss of investments has left many seniors in Rockville living on much less than they expected while trying to maintain their homes and pay taxes. We strongly encourage you to include affordable housing in your Vision Statement.

We support affordable housing in our community such as Beall’s Grant II and Victory Court. We urge you to sign a Letter of Support for tax credits for Beall’s Grant II. Montgomery Housing Partnership (MHP) has worked very hard over many months to compromise on the design of the building. With the new design 35 fewer apartments will be built and less people will be served. Since the new design has been submitted to the Planning Commission, we wholeheartedly support this project going forward without any additional demands being placed on MHP. Because of the tremendous need for affordable senior housing, we also support the plan to build Victory Court on the Montgomery County land at Fleet and Monroe Streets. Victory Housing reports that most of their market comes from a three-mile radius of each community built because seniors don’t want to move away from family, friends, and doctors, so this would be an affordable community for Rockville residents. We don’t want to lose their contributions to the civic life of our community and Victory Court will provide a much-needed alternative for seniors who can’t afford to remain in our City. We were particularly supportive of Victory Housing’s endeavor to keep the rents below $1,000 per month which will serve our seniors well. Additional requirements made on this development will unnecessarily increase the rents. The community’s proximity to stores, city services, and transportation makes it even more attractive as a location.

With this letter we are asking for your leadership in creating these and other affordable housing options for our City.

Since 1980 Community Ministries of Rockville has surveyed candidates on human service concerns. Last year was no exception and one of the questions concerned affordable housing:

Affordable housing is a top priority because it is good for business, it attracts younger people to an aging community, and it improves the quality of life for everyone. What do you propose be done during the next term to increase affordable housing in Rockville?

Here are the responses from those who were elected:

Phyllis Marcuccio: I served on the Rockville Housing Authority for ten years. Affordable housing is important to me, as is the ability of homeowners to remain in their affordable homes of the past. The Legacy project in Lincoln Park is a good example of partnering with developers and the city to provide moderate homes to moderate income buyers. We need to watch for buildings in the city that might be converted into affordable housing for the elderly as well.

John Britton: I agree that affordable housing not only benefits those who are able to live is an affordable house or apartment, but also greatly benefits the community at large, in part because it complements the richness of residential diversity – and I reference diversity in terms of socio-economic levels, race and age. It also benefits employers who are able to find a nearby pool of employees who do not have to travel great distances to get to their jobs. Although the city has the laudable goal of increasing affordable (and senior) housing, we sometimes find ourselves in contentious situations in trying to implement this goal. I think it prudent at this time to have a community-wide discussion about affordable housing – how do we define it, who are the target residents, where should it be located. This will help us more precisely set a community framework within which we can attempt to satisfy our goal of increasing affordable housing. Along with this, the city needs to be more proactive (recent proposals illustrate the pitfalls of being exclusively reactive) in identifying appropriate and attractive sites for affordable housing.

Mark Pierzchala: I agree with your description of the positive attributes of ‘affordable housing’. However, we see neighborhood reactions against affordable housing in part because it is misunderstood. Rockville elected officials need to emphatically educate the public that affordable housing is for law-abiding people who work. Additionally, we need to make sure that the size of these projects fit some sort of human scale. Mid-size projects work for me, but they have to be near enough to (not necessarily on top of) good transit.

Piotr Gajewski: Rockville is very fortunate that there are non-profit organizations in our community whose mission it is to provide affordable housing. The most important thing that the City must do to promote affordable housing is to not get in the way of those nonprofits. The saddest result of my term on the council was the holding up, by the Mayor and Council, of the building of more affordable housing.

Bridget Newton: I support affordable housing and have been working with the WECA committee on Beall’s Grant to bring a quality project that balances the needs of the immediate neighborhood with those of MHP. Additionally, we need to provide work-force housing for those who hold positions such as teacher/firefighter/police and do not earn enough to live in the community in which they work. I will continue my efforts to see that the development projects and services coming to Rockville are balanced with the concerns of the community they are joining.

As they meet, I hope the mayor and council will begin the discussion about affordable housing as John Britton has suggested, and become more proactive in developing this much-needed asset to our City. However it is developed, whether through the conversion of older buildings or new construction, we need leaders who will put great effort into turning their support for affordable housing into a reality. Leaders who, as Mark Pierzchala states, “emphatically educate the public that affordable housing is for law-abiding people who work” and spread the truth. I do hope the vision for Rockville during the next two years will include strong advocacy for affordable housing. Our officials need to lead the effort and lend their support to make it happen, even if compromises are required.

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Voter Participation In Rockville For The Past 22 Elections

>The voter participation figures are usually given in terms of votes per number on registration list. The recent surge in Democratic registrations before the 2008 presidential elections increased the registration list so that even though there are more voters in the 2009 Rockville election than in the 2007 election, the relative participation numbers went from 20% in 2007 , down to 17% in 2009. It is probable that the county registration list may actually shrink from 2008 to 2010. The county Board of Elections website shows a net loss for November and a net gain for December in the number of registered voters.

In 1987 the city switched from maintaining its’ own registration list to using the somewhat larger County registration list. Before 1987 the city had participation rates of 60% and 70%. Going to the larger County registration list reduced participation rates to about 20%.

Comparison of participation rates in Rockville elections can be very confusing and misleading The following graph shows the voting history in Rockville from 1968 to 2009, with participation based on registration lists in the upper curve. The lower curve shows participation based on city population. Note that this curve is relatively flat, staying about 10% from 1968 to 2009. The major excursions are in 1985 when Van Grack spent more than $10. A vote and in 1993 when Coyle had no opposition.

The final curve shows the ratio of registration to total population. Ideally, the number of Rockville residents over 18 should be used but that data is not readily available.

The purpose of this study is to show that participation calculations based on registration lists can be greatly misleading. The fraction of the population that votes in City elections is not as high as might be desired but it is a relatively constant fraction of the population and has remained relatively constant for the past 22 elections.

Roald Schrack

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Contributor Opinion by Jonathan Smith: Post Election Blues

>What to do? What to do? The elections were such an interesting diversion for several months. Now that they are over, how do we scratch that community involvement itch?

1. Stay Tuned. The 2009-2011 Season of the Rockville Mayor and Council is just around the corner. President Obama’s inauguration hooked me on political kick-off events so I’m planning to attend the November 22nd Inauguration of the Mayor and Council at the F. Scott Fitzgerald Theatre. I’ve even invited out of town guests – former Croydon Avenue neighbors of mine who are coming to support our former neighbor and new Mayor.

2. Get “Localer”. These Rockville Central folks are great, but are they *really* local? Where is the coverage of HOA debates (“that pink paint is WAY too pink”)? How about community pool scandals (“another ‘code brown’ closure”)? Or commercial vehicle parking rants (“Bob parked his business van in the neighborhood again”)? Several Rockville neighborhoods have community email lists; the Twinbrook Neighbors listserv is up to 200 subscribers after 18 months. Sign up for yours, or establish your own. Two neighborhood friends and I are trying to bootstrap the eminently unofficial New Mark Commons Clubhouse on Google Groups (NMC neighbors only please). I don’t feel that I know nearly enough of my neighbors, and those I do know I typically only see during the summer. We’re dreaming of block parties, sharing tips about local firewood vendors, and trading tips on shrubbery most loved by the deer. I’m just wondering how to best attract the interest of the people in my neighborhood.

3. Speak Out. I’m sure several of the past Rockville controversies still live, including the Montgomery College Fence, Beall’s Grant and Victory Housing. And I’m sure that the new Mayor and Council will make decisions with which you disagree, maybe even starting with the first meeting of the new administration on November 23rd at City Hall. Just remember that we can be passionate about issues without being mean, and it is easy for people to misinterpret your tone in emails. I (nearly) always obey the golden rule of email – never hit SEND under the influence of strong emotion.

4. Join the Party. There are always numerous vacancies on City boards and commissions. I spent about eight years as a member of the Montgomery County Landlord Tenant Affairs Commission, and about a year on the Rockville Arts Commission. Both were very rewarding ways to get more involved with the community. Of the lengthy list of Rockville’s current vacancies, the Cultural Arts Commission is missing a whopping six members and there is one vacancy on the highly influential Planning Commission. Apply to the City Clerk at 240-314-8280 – and it doesn’t hurt to make your interest known to the Mayor and Council Members.

Me – I’m thinking about writing more opinions for Rockville Central.

Jonathan Smith

I most certainly hope that Jonathan will keep contributing for Rockville Central!

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Rockville Central does not endorse candidates. We are encouraging towards all people who choose to run for office the city and try our best to make ourselves open to all.

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: 2009 Rockville Election Analysis

The following >contributor opinion by Roald Schrack is adapted and reformated from a longer report he wrote and sent as a pdf:

This election attracted a number of Council candidates because there were two open seats. One seat on the council was open because Councilmember Marcuccio decided to run for Mayor. The other seat became open because Councilmember Anne Robbins retired. Two of the incumbent Council members, Britton and Gajewski were running for reelection. In addition, there were eight new Council candidates running for the two open seats. The multitude of choices were more of a challenge than a help for the voter. The turnout was larger than in 2007, probably because the weather was pleasant all day. As in 2007, the heavy electioneering did not get started until labor day. The City televised 3 forums and there were an additional four not televised. All forums were well attended. The Gazette newspaper carried interviews with all the candidates, and the City Channel 11 ran four minute speeches by each candidate. The website Rockville Central carried a lively discussion on the campaign, so there were many avenues available for the voters to learn about the candidates.

Topics of discussion were related to the economic situation and budget pressures. The state had defaulted on $2.4 million, and the city manager rebalanced the budget by deferring some capital projects and freezing hiring. There was a deferral of some garage fees to make the Town Center more accessible to shoppers in the evening and on Saturdays after much pressure by Town Center merchants. There was some discussion of the need for civility on the Mayor and Council. A little humor was added when the question of chicken raising in the city was brought up. The garbage collection question of once or twice a week that had been a heavy topic in the previous election was no longer a hot topic. Once a week had been in operation in most of the city and accepted. Not discussed at forums but an underlying element in the election was a widespread feeling of insecurity. Home prices had dropped, people were losing jobs, businesses were closing. Rockville had previously been largely insulated from economic conditions in the rest of the country because of the heavy influence of government operations. Even though the impact on the city was far less than in many other communities, still what changes did occur caused insecurity, especially about home values. Most home prices had dropped since the last election. Protecting communities from developments that might endanger home values became a largely unspoken but potent element in the campaign. The Gazette attributed the unexpected victory of Bridget Newton, with the highest vote on the Council to her position on neighborhood protection.

The large number of candidates causes a modification of the votes needed to win. If there are only two candidates then a simple majority of over 50% of the total vote is needed to win. In this election there were 10 people running for four Council seats. Of course the candidates with the four highest vote counts win, but dependent on the way the votes are distributed, a candidate with as few as 40% of the total vote can win. This 40% is further reduced by the voters that “bullet balloted”, i.e., did not use all of the four votes they had. In some districts this additional factor reduced the percentage to win to 37%.

The following table compares participation in this election with the last three elections. “Previous voters” refers to people that have voted in at least one of the last four elections. “New Registrations” refers to those people that have been added since the 2007 election. The average probability of voting is strongly dependent on past voting history. New Registrants have an average probability of voting of about 10%. The number of ballots cast in an election divided by the total number of registered voters (B/R) is called the “participation” level in an election. The values shown here are typical for municipal elections.

Table Comparing Participation

In previous elections the number of requests for absentee ballots has been a good predictor of the number of voters appearing at the polls. The table below shows the results for the last four elections

Year: Requests/Ballots
2003: 192/.031
2005: 213/.033
2007: 213/.036
2009: 221/.034

The graph below shows a comparison of voter participation for the various districts has the same shape as in 2007 but is everywhere a little less. This characteristic shape is relatively constant over many years and reflects the average voting probabilities of residents of those districts. The relative participation may remain the same but it will be shown later that those same residents can markedly alter who they vote for from one election to the next.

The graph below shows the relative votes for Mayor in the different districts. Marcuccio beat Hoffmann by at least 10% in four districts that really determined the election. The relatively low participation rates of the districts that Hoffmann did well in meant that she could not overcome the losses elsewhere.

It is interesting to compare the 2007 and 2009 vote patterns for the two candidates in the graphs below. Note that the Hoffmann 2007 and 2009 are comparable in shape. Note that the 2007 and 2009 graphs for Marcuccio are completely different in shape. It is interesting to speculate on the source of this difference.

The graph below shows an attempt to fabricate a vote distribution for Marcuccio from her vote in 2007 and two other factors that contributed to her vote total in 2009. The factors used are:
1) We can see from the Hoffmann vote comparison for 2007 and 2009 that Hoffmann lost votes in districts 1-5. Lets assume 80% of them went to Marcuccio.
2) It was clear by election day from yard signs and endorsements that there was a lot support for voting for Newton and Marcuccio. It doesn’t count if a voter was already for Marcuccio before Newton entered the race so we subtracted from the Newton vote those that had voted for Marcuccio in 2007.
This new factor was then weighted by 80%. Factors 1) and 2) were then added to the 2007 Marcuccio vote (shown as M07 in the graph) . The sum of these 3 terms is then shown as NH in the graph and should be compared to the curve M09 which shows the actual 2009 Marcuccio vote.

While the curve NH is closer to M09 than M07, it is still far from a good fit. What we could not do is change our 80% value as a function of district, which it clearly is the case in fact. It is interesting that Hoffmann got stronger support in district 6 in 2009 than she did in 2007. This increase in support for Hoffmann in district 6 is responsible for the drop in Marcuccio support shown in the curve M09 in that district.

Turning to the Council races, the graph below shows the vote fraction for the four winning council candidates as a function of district. There does not seem to be any evidence of “Slating”, e.g., to vote for two or more of the candidates together as the shapes of the curves are all different. Also below graphs are shown comparing the vote distributions in this and the previous election for the two council members that were reelected. Britton increased his average vote fraction in all but two districts. Gajewski has retained pretty much the same pattern, losing votes in four districts.

One of the graphs below shows the vote distribution for the losing council candidates. There is no apparent similarity in the shapes of the curves, their appeal varied widely in different sections of the city. Some candidates came close to winning. Of particular note is Carl Henn. In 2007 he lost by 113 votes, in 2009 he lost by 62 votes. Also shown below is a graph showing the missing vote fraction for the various districts. As mentioned earlier, not every voter uses the full four votes available. The graph shows the average loss of such votes. It is not possible to know whether a value of .5 means that half the voters only voted for three council members or whether it means that one voter out of eight didn’t vote for any council members – or something in between. In the past there were candidates that urged their supporters to only vote for them or some other strategy designed to give them an advantage. The missing ballot curve below does not resemble the vote pattern for any candidate but may represent some strategy in specific districts. In any case the missing ballots are not large enough to have had a large effect in the election.

Roald Schrack

Here is a link to the numerical results for the election as reported by the city of Rockville. The graphs in this report are based on this data. Here is a link to the City of Rockville website showing the voting districts.

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Rockville Central does not endorse candidates. We are encouraging towards all people who choose to run for office the city and try our best to make ourselves open to all. We actively encourage candidates to submit opinion pieces and other news. We don’t include every last bit, but we try to be fair to all and give useful information about what is happening.

Contributor Opinion by Jonathan Smith: Judging Candidates on their Campaigns

>We’ve heard a lot of debate around candidates’ views on city issues, and maybe even more about politeness. But I’ve been thinking about another characteristic: campaign quality. The ability to put together an effective, cohesive campaign says a lot about each candidate’s ability to govern.

Let’s start with organization. Candidates who persuaded others to actively work on their behalf will be much more effective in persuading citizens, businesses, and colleagues in the Rockville, County and State governments. They also strike me as the type who would be able conduct more effective outreach to the community – readers of Rockville Central must agree that outreach is a critical issue for most of the hotbed issues of the last year (e.g., The Fence, The Senior Residence, The Low-Income Housing). Which candidates have campaign managers? Which candidates have district or neighborhood managers helping to get out the vote in various parts of the City?

A natural outgrowth of a good organization is a diverse funding stream. City elections are fairly inexpensive and many of the candidates are running self-funded campaigns and report little spending. While I’m glad that those candidates are involved, I am most impressed with candidates who have persuaded their neighbors to chip in a couple of dollars. This *suggests* to me that the candidate is more connected to the community, and that the community believes in that individual or their views.

Running a campaign can be complicated, but its nothing like running the City. Where candidates lack prior elected experience, I’d love to see them demonstrate expertise in organizing a campaign.

Best regards,
Jonathan Smith
New Mark Commons

This is a contributor opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Rockville Central does not endorse candidates. We are encouraging towards all people who choose to run for office the city and try our best to make ourselves open to all. We actively encourage candidates to submit opinion pieces and other news. We don’t include every last bit, but we try to be fair to all and give useful information about what is happening.

My Thanks for the Candidate Forum

What a great honor it was to co-moderate our >Rockville Central Candidates Forum last Saturday. Thank you to the candidates who were able to attend: Piotr Gajewski, Carl Henn, Susan Hoffmann, Phyllis Marcuccio, Tom Moore, Bridget Newton, Virginia Onley, Waleed Ovase, Mark Pierzchala, and Max van Balgooy. Their willingness to share details about themselves as well as their viewpoints provided insight into how they will handle the next two years in office. Many people have told me the forum either helped them decide or confirmed their vote.

We didn’t know if spending a Saturday morning learning about the candidates would be of interest to our readers, but with over 70 in attendance, it seems that it was. I’m grateful to everyone who gave us a chance by showing up.

All of our questions were developed from the comment streams on Rockville Central, so our readers played a big role in creating this forum. You may hear mention of “chickens”. If you weren’t at the forum, you’ll have to watch the video when we post it. A question about allowing chickens for eggs and companionship was submitted. I had the idea of using it for a “workshop” to find out how candidates approach issues, so we wrote up a scenario and asked the candidates to explain what they would do. People can’t resist a chicken joke!

Mid-way through the two hour event, I realized our timekeeper, Jonathan Smith, had a much more difficult job than me. He had to intently watch his stopwatch almost every minute without missing a second and he managed to do it perfectly.

Tim Hampton of VisArts volunteered to video the event for us and we kept him busy going back-and-forth with that camera, while Tom Miner of the Digits handled the sound system loaned by The West End.

Theresa Defino has been such a strong supporter of Rockville Central and was quick to jump in and help which meant we sent her for coffee and donuts bright and early. Thanks to her for all her efforts with Rockville Central, and also to Jacquie Kubin who joined her for the pickup and Andrea Jarrell who greeted everyone.

I know I missed John Britton who was at his daughter’s college parents’ weekend and Trapper Martin who had to attend his aunt’s funeral in North Carolina but I was able to read a statement from both of them.

As I stated in our closing, online communities can feel anonymous. Sometimes people are inconsiderate when stating their opinions or leaving comments because they are not thinking about the people behind the words. When we all gathered at the Thomas Farm Community Center, we made our online community a bit more real. Now we can picture a roomful of faces when we’re reading.

The past two and a half years working with Brad Rourke on all things Rockville Central has been such an adventure. From the very beginning, I wanted to get people interested in our local civic life. The low voter turnout has always bothered to me. I hoped Rockville Central would inspire people to get involved, volunteer and vote. Some people who have never attended a forum came and I’m glad.

Thank you to everyone who made the forum something special.