Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Voter Participation In Rockville For The Past 22 Elections

>The voter participation figures are usually given in terms of votes per number on registration list. The recent surge in Democratic registrations before the 2008 presidential elections increased the registration list so that even though there are more voters in the 2009 Rockville election than in the 2007 election, the relative participation numbers went from 20% in 2007 , down to 17% in 2009. It is probable that the county registration list may actually shrink from 2008 to 2010. The county Board of Elections website shows a net loss for November and a net gain for December in the number of registered voters.

In 1987 the city switched from maintaining its’ own registration list to using the somewhat larger County registration list. Before 1987 the city had participation rates of 60% and 70%. Going to the larger County registration list reduced participation rates to about 20%.

Comparison of participation rates in Rockville elections can be very confusing and misleading The following graph shows the voting history in Rockville from 1968 to 2009, with participation based on registration lists in the upper curve. The lower curve shows participation based on city population. Note that this curve is relatively flat, staying about 10% from 1968 to 2009. The major excursions are in 1985 when Van Grack spent more than $10. A vote and in 1993 when Coyle had no opposition.

The final curve shows the ratio of registration to total population. Ideally, the number of Rockville residents over 18 should be used but that data is not readily available.

The purpose of this study is to show that participation calculations based on registration lists can be greatly misleading. The fraction of the population that votes in City elections is not as high as might be desired but it is a relatively constant fraction of the population and has remained relatively constant for the past 22 elections.

Roald Schrack

This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!

Register To Vote By October 14!

>I recently received an invitation from a friend to attend a coffee for a candidate who is running for office in the upcoming election on November 4, 2008. It reminded me that election season is now in full swing, even though — since we are by no means a “swing state” — we don’t get to see very much of the presidential candidates’ electioneering activity. I do believe our friends across the Potomac are seeing a wee bit more campaign commercials than we are.

But there are other people, and issues, on the ballot this November and everyone who is eligible should vote. The deadline to register to vote is October 14.

In case you are not yet registered, Our Fair City’s Human Rights Commission is holding two voter registration drives this month:

• Saturday, Sep. 20, 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Bloom grocery store in Wintergreen Plaza, Rockville Pike between W. Edmonston Drive and Wootton Parkway (MAP)
• Saturday, Sep. 27, 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Twinbrook Shopping Center, 1902 Veirs Mill Road (MAP)

If you can’t make either of those dates, you can download a form here, fill it out, and mail or carry it to the local board of elections. Montgomery County’s Board of Elections is at 751 Twinbrook Parkway (MAP) and their mailing address is P.O. Box 4333, Rockville, MD 20849-4333.

Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Voter Turnout In City Elections

>The following contributor opinion is by Roald Schrack, adapted from a longer report he wrote for the Alliance of Rockville Citizens:

The recently released updated voter list shows who voted in the November 2007 Rockville election and allows an investigation of the level of the voter turnout. Age distribution, partisan party affiliation, differences between Rockville districts, and previous voting history were examined. No patterns were seen that could have explained the level of turnout except previous voting history.

It is revealing to compare the results for the recent 2007 election with 20% participation and the 2001 election with 28% participation. The term “voters” means a person who has voted at least once during the previous 3 elections. The term “non-voters” means either someone that has been on the rolls and not voted or a person that has been added to the voter rolls since the last election.

The first difference to notice in the charts is the larger fraction of non-voters in the 2007 chart. This is due to a large influx of new voters in 2007. Note that the “voter” group has a slightly larger probability of voting in 2007 than 2001 but the opposite is true for the “non-voters” with over twice the probability of voting for “non-voters” in 2001 as in 2007. This difference is the source of the higher overall participation in 2001.

This great change in voting probability for the “non-voter” was due to a change in electioneering done in the two elections. In the 2001 election one candidate spent $32,000, over twice as much as any candidate in 2007. That large expenditure allowed the candidate to mail literature to a larger segment of the population. In 2007 no literature was sent to any “non-voters.” Mailing to all voters costs over four times as much as mailing only to the “voters” and the expected return of votes is only a third. It is a very inefficient use of limited campaign funds to mail to the entire voter list, but this is the only way to raise the number of votes in an election.

One of the virtues of running for office in Rockville is the relatively small amount of money needed to run for office. The lowest amount spent by a winner in 2007 was less than $5,000. This low level of expenditure means that candidates can receive sufficient funds to get elected from their friends and neighbors and need not accept money from interests that might then exercise influence over them after their election. Perhaps it would be desirable if the City Board of Elections had as one of its responsibilities a effort to get out the vote from all sectors of the electorate.

Rockville Central runs occasional, edited opinion pieces by contributors as well as other guest columns. Their views are not necessarily those of Rockville Central. We encourage you to join the growing list of contributors! To submit your piece for consideration, contact us.

POTD: This One Is Mine

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(With apologies to Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket.) This is my voting booth. There are many like it but this one is mine.

Maryland Primary Feb. 12

Perhaps >yesterday’s “Super Fat Tuesday” activities have whet your appetite for voting and you are chomping at the bit to cast your very own ballot on Tuesday, February 12. Or, maybe it has reminded you that there is some sort of election thingy coming up and you probably ought to pay attention. Or, maybe you are somewhere in between and wouldn’t mind a roundup of what’s going on to help you get your head in the game.

We’re here to help.

If you are a registered voter (and if you are not, why aren’t you?), you should have received a little pamphlet in the mail that looks like the one in the photo, which is mine so no peeking. This is what passes for a “voter guide” in Maryland.

The upshot is that, on Tuesday, February 12, Maryland voters will cast their ballots for:

• Party nominee to be candidate for President of the United States
• Party nominee to be candidate for U.S. Representative
• Circuit Court Judge (choose two; they are running unopposed)
• Female delegates to your party’s convention (four)
• Male delegates to your party’s convention (four)
• Board of Education — at-large member

The links above go to the page at the Washington Post that covers the candidates that apply to folks living in Rockville. This is a Rockville blog, after all. But, in case you are reading this from outside our coverage area, here is a link to the Washington Post’s main page for coverage of this primary.

Here is a list of all the candidates: State-level and higher and Montgomery County only. (Don’t ask me why they are separated out like that.)

If you have registered to vote with a particular party, you will be able to choose your party’s nominee. If you are independent, you’re out of luck and will just be picking a school board candidate and judges.

Speaking of school board, one candidate has contacted me with a press release describing his candidacy, Rob Seubert, and his press release (about an endorsement he received) is here. This is not an endorsement of Rob; I would do that for any candidate.

Want to know for sure where you should vote in this election? Plug your address in here, and find out. It will be one of the locations on this list. Note that this is not a City election, so your polling place may be different than the one you visited last November. (For instance, for City elections I vote at Beall Elementary; for this election I will be voting in the Board of Education building.)

Yes, we still need election judges. Really, you should do it. Follow the link for more info.

See you on Tuesday!

(P.S. Want a mug like the one in the photo? Of course you do.)

(P.P.S. Thanks to Rockville Central friend Rich Gottfried for prompting this article.)

Super Fat Tuesday Roundup

In case you are reading your dead-tree newspaper and wondering how the presidential candidates did out West last night, on this largest-ever primary day when 22 states voted, amusingly dubbed >Super Fat Tuesday, here is the quick roundup:

CLINTON: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN
OBAMA: AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT

HUCKABEE: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
MCCAIN: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK
ROMNEY: CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT

This is from the Drudge Report. Honestly, to stay up to date, you should really check Drudge at least once or twice a day. Don’t turn up your nose; it’s what drives the coverage in those fancy newspapers, even though they might not admit it.

Be An Election Judge! Do It!

>Rockville Central friend Christina Ginsberg has written to remind us all that:

We need people to serve the traditional (insanely long) full day, but we also desperately need people for a special position focused on keeping chain of custody for the critical materials. That is, the computer cards out of the Diebold voting machines and the unvoted paper ballots.

Two “closers” per precinct, of different parties (which in Montgomery County means a Democrat and anyone not a Democrat), join the judge team at the precinct at 6PM, help with the last rush of voters, do the shutdown of the touchscreen voting machines, and then together drive the critical materials back to the Board of Elections here in Rockville.

I sure would like to have 10 people signed up and trained as closers on standby to cover Rockville. As well as 25 people trained and ready to serve for the full day. And if we really want to dream big, 30 more Rockville people to make up teams here at the Board in Rockville and go out together to precincts in other parts of the County.

The primary is February 12th, so we have only about 10 days left to get everyone lined up.

Potential judges should print out the election judge application and fill it out. Due to the short time frame, it is better to FAX it back to 240-777-0805 (mark it “attention Christina”). Or bring it to the Board of Elections at 751 Twinbrook Parkway and ask for Christina or Jessica.

Needed for Rockville (both closers and full day judges):

• Lakewood ES
• Robert Frost ES
• College Gardens ES
• Fallsmead ES
• Julius West MS
• Winston Churchill MS
• Ivymount School
• Farmland ES
• Twinbrook ES
• Luxmanor ES
• Tilden MS
• Tilden Center

Thanks, Christina!

Be An Election Judge!

>Rockville Central friend Brigitta Mullican reminds us that TODAY is the deadline to register to vote in the party primaries (which take place February 12), but that the Montgomery County Board of Elections need elections judges. (More information on the need for election judges can be found in the recent Gazette article.)

According to Brigitta:

“The article states ‘Republican judges is the issue,’ but it does not state that the registered voter of other parties such as Green, Libertarian, unaffiliated, or other may work as election judges. Those voters are fewer in Montgomery County and get less attention, but should not be forgotten. They need to know they may volunteer to work as an election judge if they meet the registration requirement and have successfully completed the judges training. The judges receive a small pay check for their service, which is a long day.”

As for registering, Brigitta also passes along this important information:

“Because of the short time citizens must go to the Twinbrook Office to turn in the completed registration application. Here is the link for the registration form.”

Registered Montgomery County voters interested in working as an election judge for the February 12 Primary Election may contact the Board of Elections:

Montgomery County Board of Elections
751 Twinbrook Parkway
Rockville, MD 20851
(Click here for questionnaire to begin process.)

Hours of Operation: Mon - Fri: 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
24 Hour Voter Information Line: 240-777-8683

Thanks Brigitta!

Longer Terms: What Do You Think?

There was more than >fireworks during the Citizens’ Forum portion of the last Mayor and Council meeting. There were some interesting proposals put forward, too.

One in particular stands out and I would like to highlight it.

Former City Council candidate Brigitta Mullican spoke, asking (among other things) for a few answers about the difficulties that beset the most recent election. Council Member Anne Robbins responded, and said that she does indeed have a point and deserves answers.

Council Member Robbins went on to describe how “big-time” politics has entered the hitherto-quiet election campaigns of Our Fair City: more money; outside interest groups; PACs; negative campaigning; and more. She described a symptom that has befallen many a growing city: the institution of the Permament Campaign (though she did not use those words). In such a politicized atmosphere, no sooner does someone take office than they must begin running for the next election.

Robbins raised the possibility of going to four-year, staggered terms (so that every year, citizens would be voting for a portion of the full Mayor and Council).

I have been thinking about some of these things myself, just from an observer’s standpoint. It does feel as if “big-time” politics is increasingly a part of Rockville’s scene. This is not necessarily a criticism, as one could well say that the reason politics is changing is that the stakes are increasing in their importance.

I think the specific idea of lengthening terms has much merit. I am aware that this and other issues have been brought up and discussed by the Charter Review Commission, which issued its recommendations in 2003.

Since I was only freshly settled in Rockville at that time, it is not engraved in my memory — after a question, one of my favorite City staffers, Clerk Claire Funkhouser, reminded me that a four-year term was placed on the ballot and failed. A shame, in my view, but I know there are good arguments on both sides. And there are a lot of other good ideas for changes, too.

What about you? Do you see things changing? Without necessarily pining for the past, what can we do moving forward to make sure politics really works for all Rockville citizens, and results in the governance we need?

What do you think?

Giving Thanks at the Inaugural Ceremony

Our new mayor and councilmembers were administered the Oath of Office while> on stage with their families at the F. Scott Fitzgerald Theatre yesterday. Susan Hoffmann took the Oath then administered it to John Britton, Phyllis Marcuccio and Anne Mahoney Robbins.

As was first reported by Rockville Central, Piotr Gajewski was out of the country serving as a juror at the 8th Grzegorz Fitelberg International Competition for Conductors. His wife, Tisha, and their younger daughter were honored with seats on the stage in his absence. He will be sworn in at the December 3rd Mayor and Council Meeting.

Mayor Hoffmann began her remarks by recognizing representatives from the State, County and City. When she came to Larry Giammo, she referred to him as “former mayor”, then quickly stopped herself to check, before confirming that he was in fact “former”. Although she had already been sworn in, at that moment, it became official.

“Wow what a day, extraordinary for all of us!” she exclaimed. She said this was a new chapter, and that with respect and conciliation we could have a better tomorrow. She vowed to mend the divide, and find a cost-effective, efficient way to resolve the trash issue and move forward. She would like it to be “gentle to our environment”.

She spoke of her newly-created Rockville Citizens Transition Advisory Group to be co-chaired by representatives of both “old” and “new” Rockville. Each councilmember will appoint one person to the Group and she will choose the rest. They will produce a report with a prioritized list, which will be available for public comment.

When did she receive applause? The first round was for the benchmark energy survey she wants to complete. You might wonder why an energy survey would be so well-received but she promised that by 2020 our City would emit less carbon, thereby reducing energy costs and lowering taxes. As would be expected, there was also a big round of applause when she announced that the state of Rockville was good and she intended to keep it that way. She marveled that there were only 55 cities of our size in the entire country to get a AAA bond rating.

“This is Thanksgiving week and we have much to be thankful for,” she summarized.

As the crowd milled around the reception, you could find all of the mayoral candidates and most of the council candidates in attendance. It became apparent that we do have something for which to be grateful. Everyone came together to celebrate their participation in the electoral process and offer each other congratulations. Hopefully the goodwill will continue.

Contributor Opinion: Mark Pierzchala — Running For Mayor

>I spent the first weeks putting together my website and other campaign materials. I found it was a lot of work to turn my positions into usable web pages and a good palm card.

I had a wonderful treasurer and webmaster. Other people helped out well with database, literature, mailings, and other tasks, but I never found a campaign manager or volunteer coordinator. As a result, my time was often taken with these duties cutting into campaigning time.

There were eight forums, three of which were replayed on Channel 11. I felt that these forums worked better for me than for my opponents. It gave the voters a chance to see us side-by-side and to make direct comparisons of our positions on issues, our knowledge of the City, and our demeanor. I focused on the issues, and while I had to defend myself on occasion, I never attacked my opponents. It was quite a challenge to prepare for the many questions that were asked, but the forums prepared me for contacts with the media.

Rockville Central provided a website for all candidates and the City provided space in the Rockville Reports and time on Channel 11. The Gazette, the Sentinel, the Washington Post, Channel 16, Channel 7 and other media covered the mayoral race and all of this helped level the playing field. In October, there was an editorial interview with the Gazette. The paper endorsed Hoffman based on her experience but said some good things about me. This nice non-endorsement and other positive press helped considerably. In the last two weeks of the campaign, as I knocked on doors, voters recognized me and quite a few expressed their support.

In the end Hoffmann won convincingly with 47% of the votes. I finished second with 27% compared to 25% for Powell. I think I ended up in second place because of my positive campaign that stuck to issues. As a political newcomer, I had a lot to learn and I learned it. So next time, watch out!

-Mark Pierzchala

Rockville Central runs occasional, edited opinion pieces by contributors. Their views are not necessarily those of Rockville Central. To submit your opinion for consideration, contact us.

Britney Spears For Council

If you are like me, you are always curious just who those “write-in” candidates are. Whom did people want to see in place of the 11 possible City Council candidates and three possible mayoral candidates? The City was kind enough to provide me with the write-in list and, >from me to you.

Among the notable entries was one Ron Paul fan who thought the Texas member of Congress and presidential candidate would be better suited being mayor of Our Fair City. Another voter thought Charles Manson should get the job. Eewww, is what I say to that.

However, if our write-in voters had had their way, it is our City Council that would be most interesting. One voter thought Britney Spears would make a good Council member, while another thought Arnold Schwarzenegger should join in.

Now that would be a Council. Although, it might lean too heavily toward policies that benefit California . . . .

Unofficial Voting Data By District

The City today >posted the district-by-district voting information. Just to begin to get my mind around it better, I created a spreadsheet out of it and posted it here.

You might need a map of the districts to make sense of the data, though it is not absolutely required.

The information on the spreadsheet is in two sections: first by actual votes, then by vote share. I also created a couple of charts. As I create more charts, I will update the spreadsheet.

I am happy to add to the spreadsheet, if you want to suggest improvements.

Post-Election Wrap, Contest Results

Rather than issue a series of posts, I thought I would collect all the day-after-election items into one article.>

Here are the final (still unofficial) numbers. In case you hadn’t yet heard, the winners are Hoffmann, Gajewski, Britton, Robbins, Marcuccio. You can see a video of Hoffmann’s and Gajewski’s acceptance speeches here.

According to the City, overall turnout was light, with a total of 5,887 votes cast. That’s 19.93% of the City’s 29,535 registered voters.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was newcomer and first-time candidate Piotr (Peter) Gajewski’s strong showing — he garnered the highest vote total of any candidate, with 3,019. (Sources tell me his internal goal was 3,000.) Another big surprise was seven-term incumbent Bob Dorsey’s relatively weak electoral showing with only 1,844 votes, placing him fourth down among the unsuccessful candidates.

The election was marred by a human error-induced snafu. A training voter database was supplied to the City by state election officials instead of the real one. In the training database, everyone whose address begins with “5″ was tagged as having requested to vote absentee — so, when they got to the polls to vote, they came up as having already gotten their ballot.

City election staff very quickly figured out what to do as a workaround, but the error dominated the anemic press coverage our election got from the “big” press. I mean, considering Rockville is the third-largest (or is it second now?) city in Maryland, and the county seat of Montgomery and all.

That said, our little local election made the Washington Post and the New York Times.

Rockville Central broke its own record and registered 1,011 page views (or “hits”) throughout the day, with 414 individual readers. Thank you readers!

(The photos in this piece are all from the various candidate election night celebrations. I am sorry I don’t have one for Anne Robbins.)

THE CONTEST RESULTS ARE IN

Some of our readers are keenly interested in these results because they took part in our election results prediction contest, vying for fabulous and unspecified prizes. No one predicted it exactly right. The most common prediction was Hoffmann, Robbins, Marcuccio, Britton, Mullican. Most predictors underestimated Gajewski’s results and overestimated Mullican’s final total. So, to determine who was closest, I had to do some math. On the predictions where just one pick was wrong, I subtracted final vote totals for the correct missing candidate from the wrong pick, and . . . drum roll . . . winning this year’s prediction contest is . . . Piotr (Peter) Gajewski. Truly. He sent in his prediction at 9:41 am on Monday.

Peter’s prediction: Hoffmann, Marcuccio, Robbins, Mullican, Gajewski. Since he got himself right, I subtracted Mullican’s total from Britton’s total and Peter was just 739 votes off.

Only one other person made the same prediction: Rockville Central team member CindyCG (who is Cynthia Cotte Griffiths for those in the know). But Peter got his in first, so he wins.

What does he win? Why, a T-shirt and CD from my band, The West End, of course! Peter, please send me your shirt size. You can keep it just between us. (Can someone tell me what forms I need to fill out to keep this on the up-and-up in terms of election law? I don’t want someone to call it a campaign donation.)

Various candidates and others issued statements to the voters, reflecting on the campaigns. Here they are:

Mark Pierzchala: “It was great meeting some of you today and I appreciate that you made the effort to come out to vote, so many thanks. Any voting day is a good day come what may.”

John Britton: “By voting, you validate the hard work of all the candidates. Thank you.”

Phyllis Marcuccio: Thank you to all. I am honored. The heroes in this election are the candidates’ families who held them together, their dedicated committee members, volunteers who walked the city, orchestrated the debates, froze for long hours at the polls, and of course, the citizens who came out to vote. Now it is the electeds’ jobs to fulfill their promises. [This entry UPDATED from the original post.]

Brigitta Mullican: “The City of Rockville Election for 2007 impressed me because of the number of candidates who ran for a position on the Rockville City Council. This commitment shows deep concern for the quality of life in our Rockville city. I am eager to work with a new Rockville Mayor [and] Council and am honored to serve the citizens of Rockville.”

Tracy Pakulniewicz-Chidiac: “Thank you to everyone who took the time to listen to the candidates and hear our issues. You, the voters, are who make the democratic process work, and I’m grateful for your participation.”

Real Rockville: “[C]ongratulations to everyone who ran for office and everyone who worked on campaigns. Regardless of who wins, anyone who had the guts to run or took the time to help in a campaign, needs a round of applause. I think the residents of Rockville should be grateful to all of those wonderful people who took the time and effort to show us what democracy in action looks like. . . .”

If you want to engage in analysis, punditry, or other electoral dissections, I recommend you visit the comments section of this post.

Thank you, Rockville citizens and candidates, for an exhilarating day.

POTD: New Faces

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Newcomers to the City Council, Piotr (Peter) Gajewski and John Britton, share a moment at Regal Row on election night.