Contributor Opinion by Roald Schrack: Voter Participation In Rockville For The Past 22 Elections
Jan 5, 2010 16:26 - 8 Comments
Posted by: Cindy Cotte Griffiths
Department: Contributor Opinion,Opinion
Tags: by Roald Schrack, elections, Opinion
Department: Contributor Opinion,Opinion
Tags: by Roald Schrack, elections, Opinion
>The voter participation figures are usually given in terms of votes per number on registration list. The recent surge in Democratic registrations before the 2008 presidential elections increased the registration list so that even though there are more voters in the 2009 Rockville election than in the 2007 election, the relative participation numbers went from 20% in 2007 , down to 17% in 2009. It is probable that the county registration list may actually shrink from 2008 to 2010. The county Board of Elections website shows a net loss for November and a net gain for December in the number of registered voters.
In 1987 the city switched from maintaining its’ own registration list to using the somewhat larger County registration list. Before 1987 the city had participation rates of 60% and 70%. Going to the larger County registration list reduced participation rates to about 20%.
Comparison of participation rates in Rockville elections can be very confusing and misleading The following graph shows the voting history in Rockville from 1968 to 2009, with participation based on registration lists in the upper curve. The lower curve shows participation based on city population. Note that this curve is relatively flat, staying about 10% from 1968 to 2009. The major excursions are in 1985 when Van Grack spent more than $10. A vote and in 1993 when Coyle had no opposition.
The final curve shows the ratio of registration to total population. Ideally, the number of Rockville residents over 18 should be used but that data is not readily available.
The purpose of this study is to show that participation calculations based on registration lists can be greatly misleading. The fraction of the population that votes in City elections is not as high as might be desired but it is a relatively constant fraction of the population and has remained relatively constant for the past 22 elections.
Roald Schrack
This is a Contributor Opinion. Rockville Central encourages readers to submit such opinions for consideration — the more voices the better. We especially welcome people who disagree with us. We ask that all such contributions be civil and we reserve the right to edit (in consultation with the author) or reject. Contributor opinions should not be seen as reflecting opinions held by Rockville Central editors, as they are just as frequently at odds with our own views. That’s the whole point!
This is very helpful, Roald, and I’m glad you wrote it. Many of us perceive giant political changes where they don’t exist. Off-year municipal elections are always those with the lowest turnout . . . Rockville has been doing pretty well year by year. Sure, more ought to vote, but we are not facing an electoral crisis as some may have feared or implied.
What happened in 1993?
In answer to Temperance- Jim Coyle was a very popular guy and the city was doing well so nobody felt the need to run against him. Since it didn’t make any difference if you voted or didn’t vote, not many did. The 1449 people that came to the polls did so because they enjoyed voting. This was about 1/4 the number that voted in the previous election. I don’t have a list of the write-ins names but I don’t recall any backing for any particular person. There were 71 mayoral write- in names. The council candidates were Bob Dorsey, Rose Krasnow, Jim Marrinan, and Nina Weisbroth. There were 124 council write-ins.
Roald, thanks for this. As I went door to door this summer, I was struck by how inaccurate the voter lists were — many people who had clearly moved out some time before were still on the rolls. These phantom registered voters make the turnout rate look artificially low.This is a much more insightful view on the situation.
Tom, I had the same experience you did the first time I campaigned door-to-door in Rockville using the 2003 voter registration list. That problem was the same in 2005, 2007 and 2009. The county voter registration list would have registered names of voters who no longer lived in Rockville. It is difficult to keep the database accurate. However, the voter statistics for Rockville comes from the voter registration data provided by the county and it has phantom registered voters as you described. So I agree with your statement.The first Rockville voter registration data list I used in 2005 had over 33,000 registered voters. It was a bad list. After I deleted the names of people who I verified no longer to exist, my list was down to a little over 29,000 voters. There were addresses with 8 voter names at the same address. After verifying with the current residents, I knew to delete 4 names for that address.When I compared voter registration databases from one election cycle to the next, there were differences of up to 7,000 names which were either deleted or added voters between the voting years. I compared my 2007 Rockville voter registration list to the new 2009 list and so many records did not match. It is very confusing to use voter registration data that is not accurate and cross matching was impossible the year the county assigned new voter identification numbers. The voter registration system was converted to a State-wide system several years ago.Going door-to-door and reaching someone home to verify the voter data is very intensive, but a candidate can get a real sense of how accurate the voter registration data is when door knocking. You no doubt also found this to be true in your campaign.The Montgomery County voter registration data is not completely accurate because voters do not notify the Board of Election of their address changes. The BOE can not drop a voter’s name without a long process of verification. It can take up to four election cycles before a name is inactivated. I still want to know why the City of Rockville does not keep a count of its returned sample voter ballots from their mailing. They simply give the returned sample ballots to the county and there is no cross-checking to see what was updated. I recommend the City of Rockville control its voter registration data more closely and not only depend on the County.
This is not acceptable…Thanks Roald for this information…I am embarrassed by the lack of voter participation. I actually embrace those who have a different opinion and disagree with me in a civil manner. I believe it is practicing democracy and as a City, we benefit from the process. That process also includes voting, and those with opposing views ‘vote’, and I ‘respect ‘ that action. Voter turnout currently is unacceptable. I admire the candidates that have the courage to put it out ther;…I refuse to accept such a low voter turnout as acceptable…Roald, please stay the course and keep reminding us of what I believe is a critical issue…Randy
I can look at this article as a statistician (job well done!) or as a candidate (that explains a lot!). The major determinant of participation is likely to be the perceived salience of the election to the voter. In other words, is it important to them? Sometimes you can get a galvanizing issue and that will bring out the vote. Does anyone have any specific ideas on how to get the voters to turn out? It’s not like any of us can do TV ads, hire professionals, or do a lot of print advertizing. It’s mostly walking, knocking, and mailings, with forums and meet-and-greets thrown in. And then we’re just talking to those who participate (usually).
Thank you Roald for illuminating the voting history of Rockville. I always wondered about the low participation rate. Voting is a privilege and should be taken as a civic responsibility. Is there any way that the voter registration list could be checked against the list of tax payers, utility and City services users? That would at least establish part of the list that is correct.